Monday, 4 January 2016

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are starting the year severely lower, sp -34pts, we're set to open at 2009. Other world markets are starting 2016 even more bearish than they ended 2015, with China -6.9%, Japan -3.1%, and the German DAX currently -4.2%.



*overnight low so far was around sp -40pts, so we've already come close to losing the 2K threshold.

Well, here we go again... and unlike the last 5 years, the market setup is rather bearish indeed. I shall merely refer you to the weekend post for specifics.

... and yes, I'll post the outlook for 2016 later this evening.

Update from a borderline permabearish Oscar


Doomer chat, Hunter with Morgan

As ever... make of that, what you will. I sure don't agree with some of it, but if you're looking for bearish chatter, that should help put you in the mood.

Overnight Asia action...

With the latest PMI number for china coming in with yet another recessionary sub 50 number, the market had the excuse it needed...

China -6.9% @ 3926, with trading eventually being halted in the afternoon. After all, the communists can't have falling prices, as that would upset the serfs. No doubt new witch hunts will be launched... and some traders/analysts/media will 'disappear'.

Japan: -3.1% @ 18450. The big 20K threshold now looks out of range for some months. Ugly... real ugly. How low does the Nikkei need to fall until the BoJ spools up the printers even more?

Let the games begin...

8.23am... other issues...

Gold is catching a fear bid, +$14
Oil +1.4% on Saudi/Iranian tensions

notable early movers...

AAPL -1.9% in the $103s.  As noted last week, if AAPL is leading the way, it is warning of much lower levels for the broader market in the near term.

9.11am.. sp -35pts... 2008.  So.. the 2K threshold will be vulnerable this morning. After that, the 1993 low.

Below that.. there isn't anything until the lower weekly bol'.. around 1900.

*watching the Cramer... somewhat amusing. The cheerleaders are already wondering about Yellen and rates. How long until they start murmuring QE4 again?