Saturday, 23 January 2016

Bouncing into end January

After breaking a new multi year low of sp'1812, the sp'500 saw a net weekly gain of 26pts (1.4%), settling @ 1906. US equities - along with other world markets, are set to continue bouncing across much of next week. The broader outlook though remains bearish, with target downside to the 1600s.


sp'monthly3d - classic back test


Suffice to add... the weekly candle has one hell of a spiky floor, highly indicative of further upside. The only issue is how far.. and how long will it take for the next rollover.

Right now, I find it difficult to see sustained price action >1980. It seems entirely possible the market will max out late next week, and then resume falling to the 1750/25 zone by mid February.

re: monthly3d. I hold to my original outlook that the market will unravel into the late spring/early summer, but should stabilise around the sp'1600 threshold. What the central banks will then do... difficult to say, but they will be highly inclined to spool up the printers.. even at the US Fed.

Goodnight from London

*the weekend post will be on the US weekly indexes