Thursday, 21 January 2016

Bland capitulation?

It was another day for the equity bears, with a new multi-year low of sp'1812, along with VIX climbing to the 32s. However, the hyper ramp into the closing hour to 1876 was a powerfully bullish swing, and with VIX cooling from an intra high of 32.09 to 26.59, we may have a rather bland capitulation floor.


R2K, weekly


So, new multi-year lows for most indexes, but the ramp from the morning low of sp'1812 and R2K 958 was powerfully bullish.

The daily close could have been a little stronger, but anyone holding short overnight now faces the threat of Draghi inspiring the EU market tomorrow.. before the US open.

Any break back above sp'1900 would be decisive, and then it would be a case of how high the market can rally across February/March.

Looking ahead

Thursday will see an ECB meeting, with Draghi set to appear around 8.30am EST.

data: weekly jobs, phil fed', EIA oil report, Nat' gas report.

Fibonacci nonsense

Here is something that crossed my mind earlier...


The chart should explain itself. Anyone out there with some related ideas/thoughts?

A multi-week bounce is obviously inevitable, but with broader weakness into the late spring/early summer. The ultimate issue remains whether the the sp'500 can hold the 2000/2007 double top of 1553/1576? For now, I'm holding to the original outlook that I posted Jan'3rd.

Market/econ chatter from Schiff

As ever, I sure don't agree with everything Schiff says, but I usually think he is worth listening to.


A frustrating year so far

Frankly, its been a damn frustrating start to the year. Equity bears were teased across 2015... and I think many are simply battle scarred.

A bounce seemed due last week.. but never came. Today, the Oct'2014 low of sp'1820 was decisively broken, followed by a natural rally into the 2pm hour. I launched a VIX-long (via TVIX) position, there was some market chop, but then the market hyper-ramped (especially the Trans/R2K)... with VIX imploding from the 29s to 26s.

I have a very low tolerance lately, and I was more than content to make a run for the exit door, as there now appears serious threat we've made a short term low.

I suppose it could be worse. I could have been long from sp'2081.. or using margin to be long energy stocks/Oil. No doubt some retail amateurs will have been zeroed out since the start of this year.

I guess you could say... another battle has ended, but the broader war continues.

Goodnight from London