Monday, 4 January 2016

3pm update - a third day of declines

All US equity indexes are set for a third consecutive net daily decline. With the sp' having broken multiple aspects of support, the door is wide open to an initial washout for the new year to the sp'1920/00 zone. Gold is holding sig' gains of $14, whilst Oil remains weak, -0.5% in the $36s.




Suffice to say, a close some where in the sp'1995/2010 zone seems probable.

Price structure is likely to become a more refined bear flag by 11am tomorrow. At that point... market will arguably become a valid short again.

Or maybe you think we'll somehow be trading >2050 any time soon?

*it should be noted that despite the market rallying 16pts from the low, the VIX held most of the gains, and remains +21% in the 22s. The 30s look viable this week.

back at the close... unless <1989... in which case I will appear

Ohh.. and I'm just finalising the 'outlook for 2016' post.. that will appear at 8pm EST

3.28pm.. looking at the micro price action... sub' B of a bear flag? So long as 1989 holds... then yes. A C' UP into tomorrow morning to 2010 would be the most natural outcome.

notable weakness:  FB -3.5%, as even the momo leaders are getting the smack down.

3.46pm.. I'm probably starting to get lost in the minor noise, but we could be seeing a C' UP already underway.. with the sp' swinging from 1993 to 2004.

Right now, the market will be liable to get stuck around the hourly 10MA tomorrow @ 2010.