Friday, 8 January 2016

3pm update - rats selling into the weekend

US equities are seeing renewed weakness, and we're likely to see a classic instance of 'rats selling into the weekend', as there is high threat of a significant gap lower next Monday. Regardless of the exact close, it has been a powerful week for the equity bears, with a net weekly decline of around -5.0%.




Suffice to say... its been one hell of a busy week.

The last two days of December were rather definitive - as I noted last weekend.

We've now seen FULL clarification of where we're headed in the weeks.. and months ahead.

The default trade is clearly to the short side. I realise some will try to trade the rallies, but to me, that seems overly risky and frankly... difficult.

*I intend to hold a small TVIX-long position across the weekend, seeking an exit in the sp'1920/00 zone.. along with VIX somewhat higher.. pref' around 28/30.

updates into the close... if price action gets interesting...

3.09pm... VIX -1% @ 24.75.... the 25s look due....    weekly cycle is offering 27/28 next Monday.. and that should equate to sp'1920/00 zone.

3.14pm.. Its getting real shaky out there..

Watching Steve Grasso on CNBC.... one of the more bearish guests... noting empty air from 1930-1867... and under 1867.. its a long way down (as in 1600/1500s.. I'd imagine).

So.. err.. where is Gartman on a Friday afternoon?

3.19pm.. VIX 25s !   ... with TVIX +4.7%.... :)

3.25pm.. Market looks due to fall into the sp'1920s...    VIX might even break the 26s by the AH close of 4.15pm.

3.30pm.. sp' 1931.... the 1920s are imminent.

VIX showing some upside kick... 25.28..... 26s well within range now.

3.33pm.. The rats ARE selling into the weekend !

What a great end to the week

3.36pm.. sp'1927... as price action is getting increasingly unstable.

This is exactly the style of price action that is necessary for a chance at a giant Monday gap down.

We should know around 3.55pm.. if there is a realistic chance.

3.43pm... VIX pushing for a new intra-week high (25.86).... 26s look imminent.

3.47pm. NEW weekly high for the VIX.... next target remains 28/30 zone on Monday.

3.51pm.. TRAINWRECK closing hour.... not quite apocalypse style... but... the setup for next Monday is bearish... with threat of sub 1900 open.

3.55pm...PRICE ACTION does offer a Monday mini-crash.

The window IS open.

................ back at the close.