Monday 4 January 2016

2pm update - baby bear flag

US equities have seen a moderate rally from sp'1989 to 2005. There remains further opportunity of upside into Tuesday, but price structure is offering a baby bear flag... with much stronger downside later this week. First soft target remains the sp'1920/00 zone, which should equate to VIX in the low 30s.


sp'60min



VIX'60min



Summary

*I am trying not to get lost in the minor noise. Clearly, little bounces are due.... but seen on the bigger weekly/monthly charts (across the world.. not just the US)... the trend IS down.
--

So... its the 2pm hour.. things are churning a bit, and attention will soon start to turn toward how Asia might trade overnight.

I would imagine the communist overlords might have already ordered the PBOC to buy a few things overnight. Considering the technical break <3400 though, unless they are willing to counter every sale... the Shanghai comp' is going to lose 3K this week.

... and that sure won't help the US market.
--

notable reversal.. if still negative...

AAPL, daily


Bear flag already confirmed last Thursday. Despite the current daily candle... I don't think AAPL can hold the $100 threshold much longer.
--

stay tuned