Monday, 4 January 2016

2pm update - baby bear flag

US equities have seen a moderate rally from sp'1989 to 2005. There remains further opportunity of upside into Tuesday, but price structure is offering a baby bear flag... with much stronger downside later this week. First soft target remains the sp'1920/00 zone, which should equate to VIX in the low 30s.




*I am trying not to get lost in the minor noise. Clearly, little bounces are due.... but seen on the bigger weekly/monthly charts (across the world.. not just the US)... the trend IS down.

So... its the 2pm hour.. things are churning a bit, and attention will soon start to turn toward how Asia might trade overnight.

I would imagine the communist overlords might have already ordered the PBOC to buy a few things overnight. Considering the technical break <3400 though, unless they are willing to counter every sale... the Shanghai comp' is going to lose 3K this week.

... and that sure won't help the US market.

notable reversal.. if still negative...

AAPL, daily

Bear flag already confirmed last Thursday. Despite the current daily candle... I don't think AAPL can hold the $100 threshold much longer.

stay tuned