Sunday, 28 June 2015

7pm update - upset at no can kick

World capital markets are significantly rattled by the complete failure for another Greek can kick. US equities have so far seen an intra low of -41pts.. equiv' to an open of sp'2060... currently -32pts @ 2069. There are far more severe declines in EU indexes, with the German DAX lower by around -5%.



So.. a little bounce... not exactly surprising.

For the uber bears out there... the aim has should be a break under the 200dma, which will be around 2052 at the open.

Long night ahead...  stay tuned!

*CNBC Asia starts at 7pm EST.... will be interesting to see their take on things....

China cut rates -0.25%.. along with loosening the bank reserve requirement... however, considering the past two days of declines.. and the Greek drama.. hard to imagine the Shanghai comp' not opening sharply lower.. but that is still a few hours away.

7.13pm...  sp -29pts @ 2072

Meanwhile.. Tsipras doing the old 'look smart.. by sitting in front of books' tactic.

'deposits are safe'. Yeah.. sure they are.

There can be no excuses... every Greek with a bank account had ample warning to take out their money.

7.30pm.. sp -32pts... 2069.... which is kinda interesting, but I'd sure like to see the 2050s by 11am tomorrow morning.

A test of the 200dma around 2053 would be a rather good morning low.. before a 10/15pt bounce into early afternoon.

6pm update - Sunday night special

Good evening. Futures have opened severely lower, sp -38pts, which would equate to an open of sp'2063. USD is on the rise, +0.8% in the DXY 96.20s. The world capital markets have a rather interesting night.. and day ahead. 

sp'daily5 - anticipated open.. based on current futures


Hello there!

We have a short 4 day week ahead... and with the weekend Greek developments, I shall be posting across this evening.

Key issues..

No Greek deal... with the Tuesday/end month payment to the IMF not being paid. The ECB will pull their bank liqudity program as of Tuesday midnight (unless they change their mind).

Most.. if not all Greek banks will be closed on Monday
Greek equity market.. closed.

*Keep an eye on China.. set to open around 9pm EST. China could accelerate lower, a -10% Monday decline would not be overly bold.

As ever.. say hello.... it would be good to hear from some of you this evening.

What should be clear.. a storm IS coming... at least a CAT'1

Market looks set for some serious volatility into July...  and with a referendum next Sunday... the market will likely be increasingly unstable.

Updates across the evening... 

6.21pm... sp'500 holding lower by around 36/40pts.. around 2060.

I'm unsure as to what that might equate to the VIX... probably 16/17s. The 20s still look 'difficult'
More notable weakness in the German DAX, futures -5.0%.. which really is pretty dynamic!

6.26pm.. Metals are catching a moderate fear bid, Gold +$8.

Energy is weak, Oil -1.6%...  as the stronger USD is a natural downward pressure.