Saturday, 28 March 2015

Weekend update - US weekly indexes

It was a pretty bearish week for US equities, with net weekly declines ranging from -4.9% (Trans), -2.2% (sp'500), to -1.8% (NYSE Comp'). Near term outlook offers renewed weakness, with a viable test of the very important 200dma.. which for the sp'500 will be in the 2010s across next week.

Lets take our regular look at six of the main indexes


The sp'500 saw a rather sig' net weekly decline of -2.2%, with a pretty significant bearish engulfing candle. Despite holding above the March 11th low of sp'2039, there looks to be renewed downside viable next week. The weekly cycle is offering a hit of the giant 2k threshold.

Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) ticked lower, remains negative, and notably.. attained a deeper low than the second week of March. Best guess... the 2039 low to be taken out.. with the market likely flooring in the sp'2010s.. where the 200dma is lurking.

Nasdaq comp'

The tech' fell -2.7%, although it is notable that the Nasdaq was trading in the low 5000s earlier in the week. Underlying MACD cycle is set to turn negative at next Monday's open.. and there is viable downside to the 4600s.


The mighty Dow was another index that saw a bearish engulfing candle, with a net weekly decline of -415pts (-2.3%). There looks to be further 'comfortable' downside of another 2% next week to the 17300s. There is VERY powerful support at the 17k threshold, which has held since last December.

NYSE Comp'

The master index slipped -1.8%, but is still holding above the rising trend from last October. A break under the 10800s next week would open up 10500/400s. It is notable that the NYSE has been broadly stuck since last June - when Oil/energy stocks peaked.


The second market leader fell -2%, and also settled with a bearish engulfing candle, having broken a fractional new historic high of 1268. There is viable downside to the big 1200 threshold. where there are multiple aspects of support. 


The 'old leader' was smashed this week, with a net weekly decline of -4.9%. This was the biggest weekly decline since last October. Underlying MACD has remained negative for a rather significant 12 weeks. Critical support is in the 8400/300s.


So.. a pretty bearish net weekly decline for all US indexes. Broadly speaking.. we've seen a pretty choppy March, and we've still two trading days left of the month/quarter.

The 'old leader' - Transports, is leading the way lower, although as ever.. the Oil market is having some particularly serious implications to this sector/index.

All things considered, even if the market manages some Monday gains - especially in early morning, I would be surprised if we don't break this weeks low (sp'2045) as the week progresses.

Looking ahead

Next week will be a short week.. as the US market is closed for 'Good Friday'. It is notable that despite the market being closed next Friday... there will still be the monthly employment report.

M - Pers' income/outlays, Pending home sales
T - case shiller HPI, Chicago PMI, consumer conf'
W - ADP jobs, vehicle sales, PMI/ISM manu', construction, EIA oil report
T - weekly jobs, intl' trade, factory orders.
F - *EQUITY MARKET CLOSED*, monthly jobs report.

*There are a fair few Fed officials due to speak across the week, with Yellen due next Thursday, although I don't believe that will be of any importance.

Back on Monday:)

A week for the bears

Despite a rather subdued and tedious end to the week, it was still a bearish week, with net weekly declines of sp' -47pts (-2.2%) @ 2060 (intra week low 2045). There looks to be another opportunity for the bears next week, and if 2039 can be taken out.. then an 'interesting' test of the 200dma in the 2010s will occur.




* a closing red candle on the weekly 'rainbow' chart, although it is resting on rising trend/support from last October. 

Its been a long week.. and I will leave it at that.

Goodnight from London

*the weekend post will be on the US weekly indexes

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed moderately higher, sp +4pts @ 2060 (intra low 2052). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.2% and 0.7% respectively. After significant net weekly declines, near term outlook offers renewed weakness next week, first downside target is the 2039 low.. and then the rising 200dma.. currently around 2010.




Little to add

Friday was a relatively subdued day... but one that doesn't offer a clear floor/turn. Certainly, another test of the 2039 low from March'11th looks due.. after some likely Monday morning gains in the sp'2070s.

Closing update from Riley

a little more later...