Saturday, 14 November 2015

Oil - the supply issue is not remotely resolved

Whilst US equity indexes saw very sig' net weekly declines, it was a similarly bearish week for WTIC Oil, with a severe net weekly decline of -$3.78 (8.5%) @ $40.74. Regardless of whether the $40 threshold is lost in the near term, the underlying issue of over-supply has not been remotely resolved.

WTIC, weekly2

WTIC, monthly2


*a notable second consecutive red candle on the weekly chart.

Despite prices collapsing since summer 2014 (ohh how high the $107s now seem!), supply remains too high.

Yes, there are aspects of weakness in the global economy, but I shall continue to strongly argue the problem is one of supply, NOT demand.

There has been very little capitulation within the Oil/gas sector. Until we see a few of the mid-size names disappear.. with supply eventually reducing... prices are going to remain under downward pressure.

Goodnight from London

*the weekend post will be on the US weekly indexes