Monday, 2 November 2015

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +24pts @ 2104 (intra high 2106). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.4% and 2.1% respectively. With a new cycle high, the outlook for a retrace is back on hold.. but is clearly due, with the market having ramped 235pts (12.5%) from the 1871 low, a mere 25 trading days ago.



*closing hour action: a new intra high of 2106... but there was a little weakness into the close.. as no doubt some of the smarter bulls were closing out on further gains.

Frankly, I am surprised at another new cycle high.

After the sustained price action >1950, I thought 2040/60 was a somewhat bold target for continued upside.. but now we're a clear 2% above that zone.

To be clear.. a retrace is DUE, but with another new cycle high.. the bears are back to square one... or should that be the circle of hell?

Best guess... a test of the 200dma.. later this week. A weekly close in the 2050/40s would be a bonus.. and keep open 2020/10s next week.. or certainly no later than opex (Nov'20th).

On no realistic outlook do I see sustained action <sp'2K for the rest of the year... or first half of 2016.

more later... on the VIX