Wednesday, 14 October 2015

Upside into yet another FOMC

US equities closed broadly weak, but with a notable new cycle high of sp'2022. Further upside to the sp'2030/40s looks viable within the near term. The ultimate issue remains, can the market keep on pushing higher beyond key resistance of the 2040/60 zone.. or see a critical fail?




*a notable second consecutive green candle on the weekly 'rainbow' chart.

The weekly MACD (green bar histogram) cycle is set to turn positive cycle within 1-2 weeks. If that is achieved, the 2100s.. and the threat of new historic highs will be viable before year end.

Naturally.. such talk will be considered heresy by some of you.. but the trend is unquestionably higher at the moment.

Equity bears FAILED to even hit the Oct' 2014 low of sp'1820, never mind the 1700s as had seemed briefly possible. Instead, 'normal service' has almost fully resumed, as talk continues of negative rates.. or even QE4. For now... this is no market for the bears.

Update from Oscar


Looking ahead

Wed' will see PPI, retail sales, and Bus' inventories. There is also a Fed Beige book due (2pm)

Upside to the next FOMC... or even beyond?

The next FOMC is Wed' Oct'28th, so we've a clear 10 trading days to go until that. Certainly, a rate hike looks very unlikely... not least after the recent weak monthly jobs data. Indeed, now it seems to be a case of how long until the ECB, BoE, or BoJ initiate more crazy policies.

Yours truly is long Oil. Naturally I am already underwater, but my entry looks reasonable, and given another 2-3 days I should be able to exit for a gain before the weekend.

I suppose things could be worse, I could still be holding short from when I waved the white flag in the sp'1960s. I'm well aware of some who are resolutely holding short, with the view that we're going to see another wave to the sp'1800s.. or even lower... no later than early 2016.

For the moment, I ain't shorting anything.

Goodnight from London