Saturday, 31 October 2015

Bits and pieces to wrap up October

October saw US equity indexes power relentlessly higher, with the sp'500 +159pts (8.3%) @ 2079. The Dow +1378pts (8.5%) @ 17663, whilst the Nasdaq +433pts (9.4%) @ 5053. WTIC oil ended the month +2.8% @ $46.59, whilst Copper settled -1.0% @ $2.32.

sp'500, monthly

A key closing back above the 10MA... very decisive.. and ongoing price action bodes for new historic highs (>2134) before year end.

Dow, monthly

An important close above the 10MA... the 18000s look due before year end

Nasdaq comp' monthly

A close above the monthly 10MA... already within a mere 3% or so from breaking new historic highs.

WTIC Oil, monthly2

The third consecutive blue candle... having again got stuck at the 10MA. With supply being an unresolved issue, Oil prices look vulnerable for the remainder of the year.

Copper, monthly

Another month of moderate churn in the low $2s. Along with most other commodities, Copper will be vulnerable to renewed strength in the USD... sub $2 remains a very valid scenario into 2016.

USD, monthly2

A net monthly gain of 0.6% @ DXY 97.07. Price structure remains a giant bull flag. Underlying MACD (green bar histogram) cycle will be vulnerable to a bearish cross in Dec/Jan'2016. A break above the DXY 100 threshold still looks due - as the BoJ and ECB continue to print, along with the grander issue of increasing capital flows into the USA.

October was a crazy month indeed. I had expected a move to eventually test the 10MA... and had hoped for a critical fail.. but no. The equity bull maniacs have re-taken control, and look set to battle to new highs.. probably into late spring 2016.

Goodnight from London

*the weekend post will be on the world monthly indexes