Friday, 16 October 2015

11am update - natural chop

US equities are naturally in minor chop mode, after what were rather sig' Thursday gains.. brushing against upper hourly resistance in the sp'2025/30 zone. Metals are turning positive, Gold +$0.30. Oil is cooling, -0.9%.. but should be able to rally past the $50 threshold next week.



Little to add.

It is OPEX... there is no reason anyone should be watching this nonsense today.

Underlying pressure remains UP.. so the threat will be against the bears.

It is notable that whilst the VIX is +1%... the 2x VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY are both lower...

TVIX, weekly

Not exactly a great few weeks....  and the statistical decay problem sure isn't helping.

No doubt some will believe $20 will be re-taken soon enough. They should merely stare at the following for the next hour..

TVIX, 6yr

Yeah.. $112,350 to $7.26.  THAT is the statistical decay problem. Yes, I realise there are other issues that the Direxion team have to manage, like the costs of rolling over futures.

time for lunch