Wednesday, 19 August 2015

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. After further China upset, equity futures are moderately lower, sp -4pts, we're set to open at 2092. Mr Market is looking a little vulnerable today, but a daily close <2080 looks unlikely. Sig' downside action looks viable after opex is out of the way.




So.. a little weakness (ahead of CPI data)... and we will probably be trading in the 2080s this morning.

As noted yesterday, until I see sp'2070s - along with VIX 15s, the equity bears can't get overly excited. There remains threat of another lurch higher into opex Friday.

*I am looking to pick up another short position in the immediate term. As regular readers will be well aware... I am particularly bearish AAPL, DIS, and INTC. All have seen decisive breaks this summer, and look set for lower levels. Of the three, I'm inclined to short AAPL, with an initial target of $105. By definition, that would equate to sp'2000... if not lower.

Update from a continually bearish Oscar

Indeed, the pattern from summer 2011 is similar to what we've had since February. Are we looking at forming a marginally lower high, before a powerful 10-12 day collapse wave... to the low sp'1900s?

Overnight China action: renewed weakness, with a morning low of 3558... but then the PBOC were buying again.... with the Shanghai comp' settling +1.2% @ 3794.

Despite the continued intervention.. the 3200/3000 zone remains on track. It would seeem all the PBOC can do is periodically negate some of the down moves. They can't stop all of the selling.

*awaiting CPI data and the FOMC minutes....
Have a good Wednesday

8.31am.. CPI m/m +0.1%    , y/y +0.2%

take out food/energy (yeah... that figures)... +1.8%... relatively close to PRINT HQ target.

sp -5pts.. 2091.

8.53am.. Eyes on the VIX at the open... as its August settlement.

From there.. until we're >14.60....  equity bears can't get excited.

9.11am.. indexes cooling, sp-7pts.... 2089... that should equate to VIX opening in the 14s.

If VIX can just break >14.60 (to be decisive)... it'd be suggestive equities will unravel from here.. despite the usual inclination for mod' upside/churn into OPEX Friday.

9.32am   VIX opens in the 14.80s.. ABOVE resistance...   things are starting to get interesting!