Monday, 10 August 2015

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +8pts, we're set to start the week at 2085. It is highly notable that the Dow and NYSE comp' are both set for death crosses today/tomorrow. USD is a little higher, +0.1% in the DXY 97.60s, with Gold +$4, and Oil +0.7%.


Dow, daily


So... we're set to open higher, but then... that was the case last Monday, Tue', Wed', and Thursday, and that didn't work out so well for the bulls.

Lets see where we are around 11am... and then I will be looking for some weakness for rest of the day.

Dow 17K, along with sp'2040s, are both near term targets, and considering the recent repeated rally failings, I remain broadly bearish.

Overnight China action. The Shanghai comp' saw broad gains build across the Monday session, settling +4.9% @ 3928. The gains are the strongest seen in some time, but with the SSEC already close to the 4K level, will some dare sell.. despite threats from the China leadership?

Doomer chat.. Hunter with Holter

Frankly, its more of the same nonsense from a rather standard 'dollar doomer'.

Every time Holter wears that hat in an interview, Gold loses $1. I remain holding to the big $1000 threshold. However, with the USD set to break >DXY 100, the 120s will then be due, and that is going to really hinder the metals.

As ever... make of that... what you will.


Ohh, and as for those death crosses. I realise some will dismiss them.. after all, they are very lagging indicators, but still.. they are indicative of most indexes having been stuck for many months... and are now breaking new lows.
Have a good Monday.

8.13am.. Futures jump a little... sp +14pts... that makes for 2091.

So.. again, it is an issue of 'who wants to buy in the sp'2100s?'.

notable weakness: FCX -2.2% @ $10.30s

TLT -0.5% in the $123s... but 125/126 looks a valid target later this week.

8.34am.. It would seem the bonus futures pop is due to some story that the Greek banks are going to get some more money thrown at them in the near term.

Yeah.. clearly, all is well in Greece again. Nothing for the Greeks to be concerned about. Now they can go to their local bank and make use of all the savings they have. Oh wait.... yeah.. capital controls.... still.