Wednesday, 5 August 2015

Market is increasingly vulnerable

With the Dow closing lower for the fourth consecutive day (ohhh the humanity!), US equities are looking increasingly vulnerable. Right now, it would seem extremely unlikely that the bull maniacs can break above the May'19th historic peak of 18351.




*seen on the simplistic monthly 'rainbow' chart.. we have the Dow with the sixth consecutive blue candle. This August candle could easily turn red with a move to the key level of 17000, and give high clarity of increasing weakness into late Sept/early October.

Looking ahead

Wed' will see ADP jobs, intl' trade, PMI/ISM service sector, and the EIA oil report.

Trying to be patient

Yours truly remains positioned on the short side. I am trying to be patient, but as ever, would prefer an exit into the coming weekly close. Right now, more than anything, I want to see VIX in the 16/17s. That certainly seems possible if we get a daily close under sp'2070.

With good companies like AAPL and this evening - DIS, getting whacked lower on what were both very reasonable earnings, I've seen more than enough technical breaks in the past few weeks to convince me this market is headed lower into the early autumn.

For me, it is a case of being broadly short the market, take regular profits, and short all bounces.

Goodnight from London