Tuesday, 18 August 2015

Daily Wrap

US equities closed moderately higher, sp +10pts @ 2102. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.7% and 1.1% respectively. The VIX settled +1.6% @ 13.03 (intra high 14.52). With the break above declining resistance, near term outlook is moderately bullish into this Friday's OPEX.





A truly lousy start to the week for the equity bears. Opening moderate weakness to sp'2079... only to see a sharp swing back upward... to break and close above resistance. Frankly, equity bears can write off the rest of the week.

As for the VIX... today was yet another instance where we saw an opening hourly black-fail candle.. indicative of bearish exhaustion. The closing daily candle was itself a black-fail candle.. having been unable to break above resistance in the 14.50s.

It would seem probable that the VIX will remain subdued for the rest of the week. The big 20 threshold looks out of range until September.

*I remain long-VIX. Had my entry been in the 13/12s last week, I'd have bailed at this morning's open. As it is.. I am not willing to exit for a minor loss (the same was true last Monday).. and will simply wait it out.. into end month... which now seems likely.

Looking ahead

Tuesday will see Housing Starts.

Goodnight from London