Saturday, 22 August 2015

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed severely lower for the second consecutive day, sp -64pts @ 1970. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -2.7% and -1.3% respectively. Near term outlook is uncertain, and will be largely dependent on whether the PBOC take action this weekend.




Pure outright horror across all the main US indexes.

With the loss of the 200dma yesterday, the sp'500 is in collapse mode... and so far, utterly unable to find a floor.

The Dow is similarly in collapse mode, unable to hold the key 17000 threshold.. and is well on the way to next support around 16000.

We've simply not seen declines of this style since 2011.. as has been reflected in the VIX exploding into the upper 20s.

Near term outlook most certainly offers a bounce, but there will be initial resistance around sp'2040/50. Under no 'reasonable' outlook does sustained action >sp'2080 look possible for some months.

a little more later...