Tuesday, 18 August 2015

2pm update - on the edge

US equities remain a little lower.. sitting on what is rising trend/support at sp'2094... and which will be 2095/96 at the close. VIX is a little twitchy... +7% in the 13.90s. The mid 14s remain clear resistance... 15s to be definitive. Despite the USD +0.2%.. Oil has build gains of 1.3%.. but still in the lowly $43s.




*without question... equity bears need to see the sp'2070s with VIX 15s before they stop waving the white flag.

So.. on the edge... no doubt the algo-bots will be well aware of the levels/trends. So.. now its a case of whether we break back to around 2080... or rebound.. and claw into the 2110/20s.

Difficult to call...  not least as yesterday was the same setup... and resulted in another up wave.

*I remain long-VIX (obviously underwater)... am considering picking up a secondary market short across the next 1-4 trading days.

Broadly.. things still look 'reasonable' for some trouble in Sept/Oct.

2.19pm... market holding support.. battling for another daily close in the low sp'2100s.

VIX looks vulnerable... not least as the Wed' open is VIX opex... and market will often whack the VIX lower into that.