Monday, 17 August 2015

10am update - opening weakness

US equities open lower, with the hourly cycle offering downside across the day. VIX is reflecting some moderate market concern, +12% in the 14.40s. Metals are holding moderate gains, Gold +$6, whilst Oil is somewhat choppy, currently -0.1% in the $42s.




Eyes on the VIX, a daily close >15.00 would be suggestive of 17/18s tomorrow.. with sp'2040s.

That is probably me being 'overly bearish'... but a move to Dow 17000 - equiv' to sp'2040s (and VIX 17/18s) seems the most natural thing for the market to do in the near term.

A Mon/Tuesday washout... and then clawing higher into OPEX Friday?

Regardless... we sure ain't breaking >2100 this morning.

time for an early lunch... or I'm not going to make it through the day.

10.18am.. Opening hourly black-fail candle on the VIX.. to those watching....   a clear fail for the equity bears.

With no sig'/sustained downside power... that could be it for this week....  lame open.