Wednesday, 19 August 2015

10am update - are you hearing alarm bells yet?

Regardless of what happens across the rest of today, it should be rather clear to those with eyes on the bigger weekly/monthly cycles.. this market is looking very strained. A significant break lower looks due...  first near term target remains Dow 17k, with sp'2040s... and VIX 17/18s.


Dow, monthly'2


*note the red candle on the Dow monthly, having been flat lining for months.

It is opex week, and I remain of the view, that the bears will have a far better opportunity next week.. into end month.

A daily close in the 2070s.. with VIX 15s will give clarity of next week.

notable weakness: TWTR -2.6% in the $27s... those seeking the 30s will be waving the white flag about now.

oil/gas drillers, RIG/SDRL, both lower by around -1.3%, as Oil cools -

... yours.. LONG-VIX...  but also looking to pick up another short position on the next 15/60min cycle bounce.

Seriously though... we're set to go lower, yes?

10.03am... the 200dma @ 2077... a daily close under there.. will offer the bears weakness into the weekend... something even I was resigned as not viable.

FOMC mins' due at 2pm... that really is the one hope bulls have for latter day upside...  but having already broken to sp'2078...  its looking tough.

Anyone still expecting 2170/2200s ?

10.22am... chop chop... sp'2082.. with VIX in the low 15s.

Point stands.. we have a VIX now trading above resistance (although yes.. that was the case last Wednesday, and VIX sure didn't close positive)... along with a marginal new low of sp'2078.

So.. for the moment I'm content to hold VIX... seeking 16/17s.. 18s would be great.  However, I'm also looking to get more involved... more short-term positions. In terms of options.. I'll be trading via Oct' month... which should offer enough time on the detonator clock.

10.32am... Oil inventories... +2.6 million barrel surplus...   Oil breaking lower, -1.5%.. and that is not going to help the energy stocks.