Thursday, 9 July 2015

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Equity futures are significantly higher, sp +20pts, we're set to open at 2066. Bull maniacs should be seeking a daily close >2075, along with VIX in the 16s. There is a very viable double floor of sp'2044, with a double top in the VIX of 19.80/76. Oil has early sig' gains of around 2%.




So.. we're set for strong opening gains... but it will difficult to break above resistance @ 2075 by 11am. Indeed... weakness from 11am - 2pm seems probable... but still, a net daily gain.

From a pure cyclical perspective.. the daily/weekly cycles are offering broad upside into August.

In my view, the only issue is whether we break another set of new highs... before resuming lower.. in a more severe.. and sustained manner.

*I am long INTC. .will strongly consider exiting in the 10am hour... and maybe pick up again later this afternoon.

notable early movers..

FXI (China 1x long) +5.6%
YINN (China, 3x long) +17%

TVIX/UVXY -11%, with XIV (short VIX) +4.5%

AA, +1.1%.. post earnings reaction.

Update from Mr Carboni


Overnight China action: naturally, the volatility/swings continue.. with early weakness of 3/4%.. to a new cycle low of 3373, but then rebounding powerfully, settling +5.8% @ 3709. It would seem we have a floor around my target zone of the 3400s... now its a battle back above 4K... probably to 4300/4500 zone.

*I read that the Chinese police are on the hunt for the 'malicious short sellers'. Yeah.. that figures.

What truly bemuses me... how I seem to be the only one pointing this out...

China Govt, along with all media, cared nothing when the Shanghai comp' was 2K in May 2014. Yet.. when its trading in the 3300s.. it is seen as 'omg, panic.. lets make selling illegal, blame the short sellers'.

There is an almost complete lack of perpective amongst the majority.. although I guess I really should not be surprised.

Good wishes for Thursday

8.31am.. weekly jobs.. 297k...  still 'reasonable'.. at least relative to the metric that it is. Santelli on CNBC notes the issue of 'holiday issues'.. which could account for slightly higher number.

sp +22pts... 2068....    resistance is 2075....

8.53am... sp +23pts...  we're set for 2070...    given 90mins... a break over 2075 would be pretty significant... along with VIX 16s.

notable strength:  Oil, +2.8% in the $53s

9.02am... Oh yeah... look who opens the NYSE today..

.. but hey.. don't dare suggest the NYSE.. and other places were hacked yesterday. Hell no.. you can't think that!