Monday, 27 July 2015

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -9pts, we're set to open at a new cycle low of 2070. USD is on the slide, -0.6% in the DXY 96.60s. Metals remain weak, Gold -$6, with Silver -0.3%. Oil is weak, -1.4% in the $47s.



A fair few had expected an opening bounce to begin the week, but no... we're opening lower... and importantly.. below the Friday low.

Market looks set for the 200dma, which will be around 2065 today.

It is rather important to recognise the importance of the sustained loss of Dow 17500 today.. it will bode for 17000 this week.. and that in itself would equate to sp'2000.... taking out the double floor of 2044.

Dow, weekly

Strap in everyone.. things could get a little wild this week.

Update from Oscar


Overnight China action: China opened lower and increasingly unravelled into the close, -8.5% @ 3725. The ABC 'bounce' is very likely complete at 4184. First target, the recent low of 3373... then 3200/000. Worse case for the China market by early Oct' is probably around 2500.

Have a good Monday

7.48am... okay. here is something new...

Dow, weekly'1b - H/S formation

An interesting aspect is that we have stocks like INTC leading the way lower.. already having broken the key floor (in INTC's case... $29).

As noted on the chart... in theory.. price structure is suggestive of 16000/15750 by early October.

If correct, market should hold 17000, and then bounce to the 17750/18000 zone.. forming a R/S... before a more severe wave lower in September.

9.26am.. Looks like 200dma will be taken out this morning... and that will be a good bearish start to the week.. regardless of any natural bounce into the afternoon.

9.31am.. Clear break of Dow 17500... busted trend on the weekly.... next stop.. (in theory).. 17K.

VIX 15.60s...

9.36am.. 200dma is sp'2064....     upper VIX gap zone 16.60....    something to keep in mind

9.39am.. 200dma.. taken out.   Next stop.. sp'2000