Thursday, 23 July 2015

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a touch higher, sp +2pts, we're set to open at 2116. USD is in cooling mode, -0.6% in the DXY 96.90s. Metals are catching a bounce, Gold +$7, with Silver +0.5%. Oil is +0.1%, but looks very weak in the $49s.




*so far this week, we're net lower by 12pts, a mere 0.6%. Clearly, the market is largely consolidating after last weeks strong gains.

Breaking the recent high of sp'2132 looks out of range in the near term.

Best guess remains.. a move <2110.. probably losing the 2100 threshold.. with a fast gap fill to 2080.. and then UP into August.

VIX remains broadly subdued, but once the 2100 threshold is taken out, market should get a little twitchy, and the VIX should finally spike higher. As ever though, even if the 15s are hit.. they will be VERY brief... before renewed cooling to the 12/11s.

notable early movers...

QCOM -1.3% in the $63s, post earnings depression.. having initially spiked to $66.

SNDK: +12%... one of the few techs to actually rise on earnings.
LVS +3.3%.. post earnings
CAT -2.8%...

AMZN have earnings at the close, and I think that stock will be particularly vulnerable. From a pure chart perspective, the stock looks due a smack down, with a precursor warning on Monday, via a black-fail closing candle.

*I think I could probably sleep another ten hours.. but I shall battle across the day! If I disappear though, its because I've fallen asleep on the sofa.

Have a good Thursday.

8.31am.. jobless claims, 255k...  a rather good number... and will get some spooked about a rate rise in Sept'.

According to clown finance TV, 255k is the lowest number since 1973... I find that hard to believe. Has the US never seen weekly claims <200k ?

9.13am. With the USD recovering to -0.2%.. the metals are naturally already cooling from earlier gains... Gold +$2.

For the gold bugs out there... the pain is set to broadly continue to the giant $1000 threshold.. and that of course has dire implications for the related miners.