Wednesday, 15 July 2015

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a little higher, sp +2pts, we're set to open around 2110. US equities will likely be increasingly weak across the day, with a primary downside target of sp'2080, with VIX 15/16s. USD is flat.. as are the precious metals and Oil.



A busy day is ahead... with Yellen due to appear at 10am.

From a pure cyclical perspective, the hourly equity and VIX cycles are suggesting the market is going to get increasingly upset today. Primary downside target is the micro gap around sp'2080.. along with VIX 15/16s.

*don't forget, there is a fed Beige book at 2pm, and the algo-bots will very likely react to that.

notable strength: BAC, +3.0% in the $17.60s... post earnings. The $18 threshold remains key... and I don't think it can break/hold it in the current cycle.

weakness...  FXI -1.2%,... as the China market cools.

Doomer chat, Hunter with Kirby


Overnight China action: As expected, Chinese equities are starting to slip, settling -3.0% @ 3805. The low 3700s look due... before resuming back >4K.... and then getting stuck around 4400.

Have a good Wednesday

8.31am.. Somewhat bizarrely, a Yellen press release detailing her opening remarks to the US house has already just appeared.

sp +2pts... still set for 2110.

8.55am. sp +1pt.. 2109...

INTC not looking so great @ $29.60... with earnings at the close of today. If the main market rolls lower... INTC will be in real trouble for the Thursday open. As it is... I am likely going to stay out of it. The primary trade - at least from my perspective, is as a short... but preferably from higher levels.. and not for another few weeks.

Certainly though... it'll be one to watch in AH.

9.11am.. Transports having issues... DAL -2.5%, with UAL -1.3%.... leading the way lower... main market looks set to follow.

9.21am.. With USD building gains, Oil/metals are starting to slip, Gold -$8, with Oil -0.8%.... that sure won't help energy or resource stocks.

.. and eventually.. DXY 100 will be re-taken... with a straight run to the 120s... and that has a great many implications.

... sp'500... back to flat.... 2108.

9.28am.. Gold @ $1145... .a mere $15 from breaking the Nov'2014 low. Keep in mind..  Silver has already broken that equivalent level. Gold is surely headed to the giant $1K threshold.