Thursday, 23 July 2015

Daily Wrap

US equities closed moderately mixed, sp -5pts @ 2115 (intra low 2110). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.3% and +0.3% respectively. Near term outlook offers further weakness to the sp'2100 threshold, the lower gap zone of 2080 remains a valid target, but VIX 15s look increasingly difficult, as the market simply isn't concerned.




*the VIX settled -1.0% @ 12.10.. certainly a non-confirmatory signal for today's second consecutive day of equity weakness.

So, a second day of weakness for the broader equity market, but for the bears, it remains a problem in that the declines are only minor, and this is being reflected in the VIX.

Best bear case in the near term remains a hit of the secondary gap zone of sp'2080. Considering the price action in the VIX today, that might only equate to VIX 15.30s (lower end of gap zone).. at best... and very briefly.

Looking ahead

Thursday will see weekly job claims and leading indicators. In the scheme of things though, market will be paying more attention to corp' earnings.

*AMZN will post earnings (or the usual.. lack of)... at the close

The daily black-fail candle seen on Monday likely marks a near term top...  first downside is around 420/400.. a clear 15% or so lower. As ever though, being a profitless momo stock, Mr Market might just ignore another lousy quarter, and still burn out the existing shorts.

Still... those black-fail candles are not to be dismissed lightly. AMZN bulls... beware!

Back in London

Traveling away from the coast, and back into the city is never easy. It has always felt like part of my soul is getting ripped out. This morning was not much different, but this time, I returned with the realisation that my next exit from the city will likely be a one way ticket. That thought is something I am very bullish about!

A glimpse of this morning...

Yeah, I sure could live with waking up to that every day.

Goodnight from London

ps. normal service will resume tomorrow.

.. and thanks for the emails. I've still to reply, as I'm having issues with sending outbound mail.