Thursday, 9 July 2015

China is due to turn

Having collapsed from 5178 (June 12th).. to last nights new cycle low of 3421, the Shanghai comp' is likely close to completing a very natural retrace. A bounce to 4300/500 zone looks probable into August. However, considering other world indexes.. renewed weakness to 3K.. or even 2500 remains viable in Sept/Oct.

China, daily

China, monthly


The bigger monthly cycle tells the real story. A clear mid term peak in June.. and regardless of any upside into August... I would imagine another major wave lower in Sept/Oct.

Long term... new historic highs look due... above the 2007 peak of 6124. It will be interesting to see how long it will take the tens of millions of Chinese who have only recently got a trading account.. to have renewed confidence in their equity market. Not that long... I'd imagine.

Looking ahead

Thursday will see the usual weekly jobs data.

*there are 3 fed officials on the loose tomorrow... I'd have to guess at least one of them will say something that will capture the markets attention.

Goodnight from London