Monday, 27 July 2015

3pm update - weakness into the close

US equities look set for renewed weakness into the close, with most indexes closing lower for a fifth consecutive day. VIX is reflecting some increasing market concern, +15.7% in the 15.90s. Metals remain weak, Gold -$4, and that is keeping downward pressure on the miners, GDX -3.0%.




*reading around a bit, somewhat amusing to see some get bullish after the Monday China session.

So.. a fair bit of chop today.. and numerous micro up waves.. but still... we're set to close lower once again.

Bull maniacs should be seriously concerned at the technical breaks seen on the bigger weekly/monthly charts.. but then... most simply don't care about such matters.

*I remain long VIX, but will strongly consider dropping if VIX >16.20 or so before the close. Broadly.. I want to be long VIX all the way into early October.

updates into the close... not least if sp' breaks <2060.

3.08pm.. VIX breaking new cycle highs..... 16.09

3.12pm.. mining stocks starting to collapse again, FCX -6.8%.

3.17pm... Tight stop on VIX (will get kicked if <16.03)... am looking to exit for the day.....

3.22pm... EXITED VIX-long.. from 16.10....

Will re-long VIX... on any sig' drop tomorrow... otherwise.. will sit it out for a day or two.

3.27pm... So.. I'm out of VIX... I am a little concerned of cooling back to the 14s tomorrow.. or certainly.. Wednesday.

Anyway.. I'm out for a gain...  its progress.... but the big money won't likely be made until September.

3.36pm. The rats are getting a little twitchy into the close... not surprisingly.

I'm glad to be out.... my VIX trade was getting a little annoying.... despite the trend now looking increasingly strong.

3.45pm... a close under the 200dma looks probable.. but then.. that is the sp'500.. and other indexes (not least the Transports lost the 200dma in May.

VIX 16.27.... there will be sig' resistance around 16.60....  with threat of cooling to the mid 14s.