Wednesday, 29 July 2015

3pm update - a close above 2100

Despite the Fed still unwilling to give any hints that rates will be raised at the Sept' FOMC meeting, the market is holding moderate gains, with a new cycle high of sp'2109. Equity bears should be desperate for a daily close under the 50dma @ sp'2100... along with VIX back in the 13s.




Well, despite some notable chop... the market is so far holding the gains, with a daily close <2100 now looking very difficult... as are VIX 13s.

It remains the case that from a pure cyclical perspective, we're on the high side, and it utterly bemuses me why anyone would be buying (and not selling) above the sp'2100 threshold.. considering the past few months of price action.

Regardless of the close...  not the best of days for yours truly... but I've had far worse.

notable weakness (as is usually the case) coal miners, CNX, -7.2% in the $16.40s. Recent earnings were dire.. and offers little hope for a long time to come.

*FB earnings at the close... so that is something to watch for.

3.15pm.. chop chop.. sp'2108.... and clearly.. a daily close <2100 is out of range... which is a major victory for the bulls.

As things are.. with VIX in the mid 12s... it remains the case that it really can't go much lower anyway... right?

3.30pm.. sp'2108... VIX 12.30s....     Hmm.  

Seriously... who wants to buy here?

Oh well.. FB due at the close... maybe they'll spike it to the big $100 threshold.. and then cool from there.