Wednesday, 15 July 2015

10am update - market is highly vulnerable

US equities open with some minor mixed chop. The hourly equity/VIX cycles are both offering turns, with building equity downside across the day.. and seemingly likely into Thursday. Primary downside target is sp'2080, with VIX 15/16s. With the rising USD, +0.4% in the DXY 97s, metals and Oil are under increasing pressure.




*there is a great deal to cover as the USD breaks back into the DXY 97s, which is really causing problems for the precious metals, with Gold in danger of breaking the Nov' 2014 low of $1130.

Well, its day'1 of the Yellen, and this will last into the 12pm hour. Settle back... and err.. enjoy? lol

notable weakness: airlines, DAL, -2.0%, UAL -2.5%

strength: INTC +0.8%... as speculators appear ahead of earnings. Personally, I don't like the setup.. and will leave it alone.

10.05am.. Hourly equity cycle set to get a bearish MACD cross within 30/60mins.... should see sp'2100 threshold tested by the time Yellen concludes.

I realise some are seeking 2115/20 zone... but it looks difficult. before 2080.

10.21am... Want to play the 'Transitory drinking game' ?

So far... I've only noticed one.

As ever.. in Fed land.. everything is transitory.

10.25am.. the longer Yellen speaks.. the higher the risk of her saying something Mr Market will get upset at.

Hourly cycles are absolutely clear... the setup increasingly favours the bears today.. and into early Thursday.

10.50am.  LONG-VIX.. from 12.95..... I am seeking the 15s.