Wednesday, 14 January 2015

2pm update - time for a book

US equities remain broadly weak, breaking last week's low of sp'1992. Even the more resilient R2K is starting to show significant declines of -1.3%. VIX is confirming the weakness, +12% in the 23s. Gold is catching a 'fear bid', +$5. Oil remains weak, -0.7%. The first fed 'beige book' of the year is due.



*awaiting Fed beige book at 2pm

So... we've taken out the recent 1992 low... next stop is the 200dma at sp'1965... which is certainly viable.. if not likely tomorrow... or Thursday.

For the bulls... its now a case of 'pray the ECB do not disappoint' next Thursday.  Otherwise, January will end on a real down note.. and the bigger monthly cycles will close bearish for the first time since late 2011.

Notable weakness, coal miners... BTU -11.8%

..more on the coal miners later... on my 'fair value' page.

2.24pm.. Oil swings +2%... taking the main market with it... but still.. with the break of 1992.... an attempt on the 200dma at 1965 looks likely.

Notable gains, CHK +1.3%...

2.33pm... pretty bad ass hourly candle... sp'2008...  no doubt... many short-stops getting hit... at what is ... a typical turn time.

Bears.... beware.    VIX cooling, now just +5%

2.36pm.. Hourly 10MA... sp'2010... a move over there... would be crazy wild.. into the close.