Good evening. With sporadic news wire reports about the troubles in the Crimea, futures have opened somewhat lower, with the sp' -20pts in the opening 10 minutes. Best case for the equity bears is probably a hit of the 50 day MA, equiv' to sp -37/40pts.
So..Mr Market is naturally a little rattled by the developing crisis in the Crimea.
Best guess for Monday...a close that is markedly higher than whatever morning low we see.
I'd sure not be surprised if we close a little higher - although there will be very strong resistance at the weekly upper bollinger - currently around sp'1870, but will probably rise in late March/early April.
As it is, I have no real interest to get involved right now..and am merely waiting for the next FOMC of March'19.
updates...into the early night..as necessary
6.40pm EST .. sp -17pts...so..we'd open around 1842
Metals are higher, with Gold +$10...
Clearly, the moves we're seeing in the opening hour are kinda interesting, but nothing dramatic.
Certainly, if the market is in a bad mood tomorrow morning, lower levels are likely, but I really don't expect anything too major.
7.35pm EST sp -18pts.... 1841... so.. a 1% decline.
Again, its nothing dramatic, and I'd be VERY wary that this nonsense won't manage a green close.
Bears face sig' QE-pomo Monday and Wednesday...and by end of the week, if Mr Market likes the jobs data, then a weekly close in the 1880s is most certainly viable.
*monthly charts will be important to watch at the Monday open. Will see the upper bol' jump to 1940/50....which of course is a fair way higher than current levels.
Oscar posted an interesting ES chart...
see: Oscar's chart page
..and the Oscar for most bullish chart goes to....
8.45pm EST..... futures -0.8% or so. Still a moderate chance it'll briefly spiral lower early Monday, but overall....nothing even moderately crashy.
Not expecting anything more overnight....I'm outta here..
Goodnight from London
back at the Monday open.