Sunday 2 March 2014

Sunday night futures update

Good evening. With sporadic news wire reports about the troubles in the Crimea, futures have opened somewhat lower, with the sp' -20pts in the opening 10 minutes. Best case for the equity bears is probably a hit of the 50 day MA, equiv' to sp -37/40pts.


sp'daily5


sp'weekly8


Summary

Evening everyone!

So..Mr Market is naturally a little rattled by the developing crisis in the Crimea.
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Best guess for Monday...a close that is markedly higher than whatever morning low we see.

I'd sure not be surprised if we close a little higher - although there will be very strong resistance at the weekly upper bollinger - currently around sp'1870, but will probably rise in late March/early April.

As it is, I have no real interest to get involved right now..and am merely waiting for the next FOMC of March'19.
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updates...into the early night..as necessary
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6.40pm EST .. sp -17pts...so..we'd open around 1842

Metals are higher, with Gold +$10...

Clearly, the moves we're seeing in the opening hour are kinda interesting, but nothing dramatic.

Certainly, if the market is in a bad mood tomorrow morning, lower levels are likely, but I really don't expect anything too major.
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7.35pm EST sp -18pts.... 1841... so.. a 1% decline.

Again, its nothing dramatic, and I'd be VERY wary that this nonsense won't manage a green close.

Bears face sig' QE-pomo Monday and Wednesday...and by end of the week, if Mr Market likes the jobs data, then a weekly close in the 1880s is most certainly viable.

*monthly charts will be important to watch at the Monday open. Will see the upper bol' jump to 1940/50....which of course is a fair way higher than current levels.

Oscar posted an interesting ES chart...

 see: Oscar's chart page

..and the Oscar for most bullish chart goes to....
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8.45pm EST..... futures -0.8% or so. Still a moderate chance it'll briefly spiral lower early Monday, but overall....nothing even moderately crashy.

Not expecting anything more overnight....I'm outta here..

Goodnight from London
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back at the Monday open.