Wednesday, 31 December 2014

King dollar remains King

Despite relentless protestations from the 'dollar doomers', the US currency has built a solid trading floor across the last seven years. The USD has recently achieved a decisive breakout, and looks set for the giant 100 level in 2015. From there.... 120 and beyond.

USD, monthly, 15yr


Little to add... I merely wanted to highlight the USD to close today.

I could cite Schiff.. along with the other 'usual suspects'. None of them get it yet... despite a break into the DXY 90s. Its pretty weird.. but oh well... they'll never be bullish dollar... its simply not in their range of 'available outlooks/scenarios'.

After all, would you rather hold Yen or Euros?

No doubt some would say 'no FIAT for me!', but seriously... the bigger picture is clear. Euro/Yen will continue to weaken against the USD, not least since the BoJ and ECB are both intent on QE 'until everything is fixed'.

Looking ahead

The last day of 2014 will see a trio of econ-data points... jobless claims, Chicago PMI, and pending home sales. Market is seeking a PMI of 60.8... which is considerably far above from the recessionary threshold of 50.

*for the super equity bulls out there (sp'2500 and above)... they should be seeking a United States PMI in the 70s in 2015... not least due to very low energy costs.. which is extremely bullish for the broader economy.

One day left of 2014

It has been another crazy year in market land. I could say a lot more.. but I will leave that for tomorrow.

*there is still time to submit your end 2015 target.. see HERE

Goodnight from London