Thursday, 9 October 2014

10am update - opening weakness

US equities open somewhat lower, but it does very little to negate the Wednesday hyper swing-gains. Equity bears should be desperate for a daily close at least in the 1955/50 zone, along with VIX 16s. Meanwhile.. Oil remains very weak, -1.1%.




It remains a VERY messy situation in my view.

A lot of people are no doubt being stopped out on both sides... as this market battles to secure a double floor of 1926/25 spanning the past week.

Best guess? Right now, I'd be somewhat surprised if we manage to break another new low.

The one thing the bears do still have.. .the weekly cycles remain outright bearish, but more on that later.

Notable weakness: coal miners, BTU -6.7%... new multi-year lows....   BTU looks headed for $5. The US Govt's 'war on coal'... continuing to show progress.

10.09am.. sp -11pts , 1957..... hourly MACD Cycle is levelling out... and there IS a full 8-12 trading hours of viable downside... ALL the way into the weekend.

VIX showing some initial power.. +5%... set to break the 16s.

VERY long day ahead....    

10.18am... another micro bounce... already back to 1961.

Miners are cooling a little, GDX -1.9%

10.38am.. sp'1953... this is more like it.... bears are back... VIX +6.8%.... 16.10s.

These kind of day to day swings.... not seen this price action in a long time.

Notable weakness: oil/gas drillers....usual suspects.. RIG/SDRL, both -2.5% or so.