Monday 4 August 2014

3pm update - minor chop into the close

US equities are building moderate gains, with the sp' likely to settle in the 1935/45 zone. VIX continues to melt lower, primary target remains 14.25/13.75 zone by late Tuesday. A further wave lower to sp'1910/00 zone is expected.


sp'15min


vix'60min


Summary

*VIX has a fair chance of hitting 14 gap zone..before we see a lower high in equities.

What I'm suspicious of, is that we might see sp'1910/00.. but the VIX might not put in a higher high. It would make for a rather classic divergence, before a much more sig' equity rally.

Something to watch for across the next few days.
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3.05pm.. ALL smaller cycles highly vulnerable to rolling over from here.. sp'1939... looks to be a valid 30/40pts of downside.

As Riley noted earlier... a typical pre-opex floor.. Thurs/Friday.
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3.40pm.. As things are... minor follow through to 1945/50 looks possible tomorrow morning, before renewed weakness.

I'd actually consider a short trade... but on a VERY short term basis, probably just a few days... with a broader aim to be long from 1910/00.


Eyes on the VIX..which is fast approaching the low 14s..... which should be the flooring zone.


3.46pm.. Hourly upper bollinger resistance.. .1946... will be hard to hold much above that....1950 would make for a natural 'brief' opening Tuesday high..before roll lower.

Certainly...we're almost 1.5% above the Friday low....kinda significant.


3.57pm... rolling over....slowly.