Friday, 14 March 2014

3pm update - weakness into the close

There is next to zero reason why anyone will want to be going long the market into the weekend. It won't take much to achieve a weekly close in the sp'1830s, and that will provide an important weekly bearish warning. VIX is comfortably building the 17s.




So....weakness into the close....and maybe we'll even see VIX 18s..with the sp'1830s.

From there..I really hope we can bounce to form a RS into next Wednesday - around 1865/75.

I remain looking to launch a major re-short, but only after the next FOMC announcement.

updates into the close.......

3.01pm... sp'1840..and we're about to break into the 1830s.  Lower bollinger on the hourly is offering 1833/31 by the close.

3.17pm... sp'1841....the 1830s must surely be due this hour...

a little 7/10pt drop in the last 45/ the rats 'jump ship'...into the weekend.

*I'd still guess we rally on Wed'

VIX 18.12.      19s with sp'1834  ?

A major VIX smack down on Monday seems the market Crimea vote.

VIX longs.........beware!

3.37pm... 5min index cycle...set to roll over into the close....the 1830s still look due.

3.51pm.. rats EXITING into the come the 1830s.

3.54pm.. look at those rats selling....they fear the Crimea.

Irony is..we'll probably rally across Monday....

Again...those long VIX are getting a fine chance to exit here in the 18s.