Friday 14 March 2014

10am update - opening VIX black-fail candle

Equities open with some minor weakness, but the opening black-fail candle on the VIX is a warning that the equity bears are losing control - at least for a little. Precious metals are sharply higher, Gold +$15, with Silver +2.7%.


VIX'60min


sp'60min1c


Summary

So..minor chop to start the day, and the bull maniacs are pushing to turn things around.

However, yesterday's break <1850 was significant - the damage HAS been done, and we will surely at least resume a fall to 1834 at some point, whether later today..or early Monday.
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As ever, the question is... who wants to go long into the weekend?

...thats right...I didn't think so.
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*keep in mind the key threshold for a bearish (weekly cycle) warning is ANY close <1863..which frankly. does seem very likely.

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10.08am.. first resistance is the hourly 10MA.. around 1855/57....

by 11am..high probability of a roll over..to the low 1830s by late day.  Bulls...beware!


10.22am.. sure is tempting to short this market in the 1855/57 zone..if we're there by 11am.