Tuesday, 4 February 2014

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a touch higher, sp +2pts, we're set to open at 1743. Metals are lower, Gold -$4. With sig' QE this morning (and tomorrow) equity bears are at risk of a minor bounce, but with major downside pressure from the weekly charts. Target downside remains sp'1710/1690.



*awaiting factory orders data at 10am. Like ISM yesterday it might be enough to give the market a nudge..one way or another.

So..what about today?

There is clearly risk of a minor bounce, but we'll likely still close net lower on the day. There really isn't any support on the sp' until the 200 day MA, and that is a clear 30pts or so lower.

Something I will be looking for in the rest of this week.. VIX >22..which would break the 2013 high of 21.91.

Video update from Mr Permabull

The one thing I will agree with Oscar on...  a flag is a flag..is a flag. Which is why I was particularly highlighting the daily charts last week.

8.23am... Market picks up a bit...sp +7pts.... whilst metals weaken... Gold -$8.

Notable early mover: UGAZ +10%..so.. Nat' Gas is around 3.3% higher.

8.58am... still creeping higher.. sp +9pts... Gold -$9/10

I'll be looking for any bounce to max out by 11am...somewhere in the low 1750s. A red close is still easily viable.

9.44am.. weak weak weak.   Long day ahead !