Thursday 2 January 2014

11am update - floored in the low 1830s

The opening weakness looks to have played out, with a floor of sp'1834. The only issue now is how we close the week. A weekly close in the 1850s looks very probable, and that keeps open the 1875/1900 zone within 2-3 weeks. Metals are holding gains, whilst Oil is especially weak.


sp'60min


Summary

..as expected..the 1830s have held.

There really isn't any downside power..but then, that has been the case for two years.
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The only thing bears have in their favour is no sig' QE until next Tuesday.

Indeed, that continuing QE is still the problem for the equity bears. $40bn vs $45bn ...ain't that much of a drop.


11.10am.. notable strength in the coal miners.. BTU, ANR...all the usual suspects.

I'm a fan of the miners of course, but if you believe the market is going to decline to the low sp'1600s later this year, I'd be reluctant to chase them at these levels..even though some of them might ramp 50% by late spring.

BTU, daily


The 22s look viable this month..perhaps $30 by late spring...and then $20 again by early autumn.

Long term...it is one of my favourite energy stocks.


11.54am.. well, there goes 1833...hmm. Oh well, door is open to 1812/10..Still though, I won't be short it.