Tuesday, 23 July 2013

Volatility climbs a little

With the main indexes closing moderately mixed, the VIX managed a small gain. The VIX closed +3% @ 12.66, after an earlier spike gain of 6% in the low 13s.  Near term trend still looks weak though, and sp'1710/20s would very likely equate to VIX 11s.



Little to note, one up day in the VIX does not constitute a major trend change.

With the indexes looking like there is broad upside into early next week, the VIX will struggle to break above the still declining daily 10MA.

more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

The main indexes saw mixed chop across the day, with the main indexes closing mixed. The sp' slipped a largely irrelevant 3pts to 1692. Oil closed with gains of 0.4%, whilst Gold +$9. Near term trend remains to the upside.



Another tiresome day of largely nothing.

QE continues, and yet there is still 'crashy' chat out there.

Seriously? Haven't the last four weeks been enough to convince the bears of sp'3000* in 2016 yet?

I guess not.

If Sub'3 even done yet? That is still too difficult to guess.

*ohh, and as for sp'3000, its a very valid scenario...if QE continues.

3pm update - more of the same

Just another day of the same old...nonsense. Algo-bot melt..fuelled by QE. A close in the sp'1700s looks viable..not that it matters. Bears remain utterly..and laughably powerless. Oil now holding gains of 0.6%, $110s are a'coming.



RE: daily chart count.

There is actually little reason to believe sub'3 is complete yet.

The recent decline that many label as 4' really doesn't look enough to merit it.

Anyway, primary trend remains strongly higher...only a maniac would consider shorting this week.

Gold jumps $10..and Silver is back to flat (it does tend to be weaker more than gold).

Very frustrating day...I suppose it could be worse.

2pm update - afternoon melt

The main indexes have managed to hold within the primary up channel..and the sp' now looks set for upside melt into the close. Considering the hourly index charts, a close in the 1700s would up the 1710/20s tomorrow on any 'good earnings' news. Oil is now +0.5%



Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle looks floored, and is now starting to battle back higher.

Bears have just relentless problems here...little reason why the bulls don't have a fair chance at breaking the sp'1700 threshold in the closing hour.

*lots of earnings at the close, including AAPL.

I remain watching SLV, and suspicious of a small gap lower at the Wednesday open.

1pm update - micro moves

The main indexes remain in minor-chop mode, with the sp'500 holding above the key channel line, in the 1690 area. Metals are mixed, whilst Oil is holding slight gains. Underlying price pressure remains to the upside.



Yes, we're close to breaking the channel..by merely trading sideways.

Problem for the bears remains the smaller 5/15min cycles are arguably floored, there is QE, and I still feel the bears are 'powerless'.

SLV, minor down cycle...and its back -18 cents


1.33pm.. SLV'60min

I like SLV in the 19.40/35 area..but that sure doesn't seem viable today.

A gap lower at the Wed' open..and then major reversal?

Yes, right now, that'd be the trade I'll take.

12pm update - propped up by benny bux

The market is struggling, but its pretty clear why we're not dropping below key channel support of 1690..... QE-pomo..of $3bn. Precious metals remain a touch weak, whilst Oil is battling higher again. VIX is cooling down after a brief 6% spike into the low 13s.


USO, daily2


It remains all minor chop.

There is no reason for the bears to be getting involved this week, even if you think there is a sub'4 yet to come. Very minor downside risk....against the likely reality of sp'1710/20s.

*SLV remains on my radar, but so far..I'm content to just watch.

VIX update from Mr T

time for lunch!

11am update - minor moves

The main indexes are a touch weak, but still..the bears appear powerless. There is no real power on the downside. Oil has already turned back higher, after earlier pre-market declines of 1%. Metals remain 'gently' cooling down after the big Monday jump.



So...there is channel support around 1690.

A break of that..and we can a lot more...but I'm guessing...no.


SLV...a little lower...

 I might try to catch the next low, via the 5min cycle   19.40/30 would be a much more attractive level.

11.11am... looks like 1690 - channel support.. will hold.

SLV -13 cents..( it was -33 in pre-market)... 5min cycle kinda high...still potencial for a little wave lower on that.

11.27am...SLV set to rollover on the 5min....

19.40s..will be tough to hit...volatility is real low today..

10am update - morning chop

The main indexes are a touch higher, and indeed, its not exactly 'exciting' this morning. Yet, neither do the bears have anything to get exited about, not least with a $3bn QE about to give the market an extra kick. Metals remain a little weak, ...VIX is about to break into the 11s.



Whatever you want to think about this nonsense, one thing is clear...the channel from the 1560 low is STILL holding.

Bears have ZERO reason to be launching short positions right now.

I have the small fear this market will ramp right through August into September...1750/1800s...although I'm currently holding to a turn next week.

I'm just saying, those without short-stops could get nuked...if they are not careful.

*I remain watching the metals...


That is quite probably the turn...but I'm just not interested in doing anything...yet this morning.

UPDATE 10.13am...the sp' is down a devastating 1pt so far.

Any bear out there think this is something to get excited over?

Bears ARE still powerless. There is ZERO reason why we'll see sig' downside today, not least with $3bn of benny bux sloshing around there.

 I remain watching SLV.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +3pts, we're set to open around 1698/99. The sp'1700s look likely in the opening half hour.  Metals are weak, with Silver -1.4%. Oil is similarly weak again, -0.75%.




Well, its been a very stormy night/morning in London city, perhaps that is good bear weather?

To see the market higher again...is most certainly not a surprise.

Equity bears should be VERY concerned about today. A break over 1700 will no doubt get the mainstream at least marginally hysterical, and the sp'1710/20s are viable by the close of today.

There is sig' QE of $3bn, the bears really don't have any hope today..either.

*I am considering an SLV long.

It had a good run yesterday, and its been cooling off since late Monday afternoon.

With the break outside of the weekly down channel (for Gold, not yet Silver) metals look set for higher levels later this week.

Good wishes for Tuesday!

Mid-term outlook on track

The US equity markets look set for another week to the upside. The weekly index charts are offering sp'1705/10, whilst the daily charts are suggesting as high as the 1720s. Regardless, the bulls are unquestionably still in control, and look set to rule for a fifth consecutive week.

sp'weekly8 - mid-term outlook


We've still not quite hit the next psy' level of 1700, but with the R2K in the 1050s, sp'1700s look a matter of 'when'..rather than 'if'. The only issue appears to be 'how many more weeks of this latest nonsense' are left?

Best guess...we max out in the 1710/20s, no later than early next week.

*I am looking for July'31st to be a key turn date, not least since its the next FOMC, and the first reading for Q2 GDP.

For the moment though...the near term trend remains to the upside. I am most certainly content to sit on the sidelines.

Looking ahead

There are a couple of minor pieces of housing data early tomorrow, but I don't think the market will take much notice.

*there is sig' QE-pomo of around $3bn, so...as ever...bears beware!

Goodnight from London

Video bonus...from sp500chart.com

*I have been following this video poster for some considerable time. He has an interesting perspective on the general equity market, and I think the weekend overviews are worth a look. Certainly, he is less bullish than Mr 'Europe will be joining the recovery' Carboni.

Daily Index Cycle update

The US equity market started the week in a very quiet state, with most indexes closing relatively unchanged. The Sp managed a tiny gain of 3pts, settling at 1695, which was yet another historic closing high. Near term trend remains unquestionably bullish.




sp'1695..thats a powerful 135pt gain across the last 20 trading days.

Indeed, of those 20 days, only 4 were red, 3 of them 'minor'.

The bulls remain strongly in control - holding within a very clear up channel. With no major news due this week - and two significant QEs (Tue/Thursday), there is likely further upside into the 1710/20s in the very near term.

Best guess remains, a turn to the downside next week..no later than July'31 - the FOMC, GDP Q2 day.

a little more later