Tuesday, 12 November 2013

1pm update - needing another shakeout

The market has been stuck just under the sp'1775 high for around two weeks. It would seem Mr Market wants another little shakeout before the next lunge higher..into the 1800s. Metals remain weak, with Gold -$7, and Silver -2.2%. Oil is naturally weak, -0.9%



At least things are more interesting today!

We have indexes that look tired, and from the price action, I think we have an increasingly good chance of pulling lower to the 1730s.

Certainly, the recent 1746 low should be taken out..and that will make the 1730s a given.

The only issue is what sort of buying interest will we get in the 1730s?

Strong support on the rising 50 day MA..which by this Friday will around 1722/25
Lower bollinger @ 1730/32

Frankly, I still can't see sub'1700s in the remainder of the year.

Similarly, VIX should remain <20 until mid/late Jan' 2014 - when Mr Debt ceiling appears again.


UAL..cooling off..as the weakness in the main market starts to cause problems.

Regardless, the initial break is pretty important.