Wednesday, 2 October 2013

A very bullish October?

Equities have started Q4 will some rather important gains, and with the sp' back in the 1690s, the weekly charts are back to outright bullish. The monthly sp' chart is now offering the 1740s later this month. Baring a debt ceiling crisis in a few weeks time, market bulls look set to rule the rest of 2013.

sp'weekly8 - mid term bullish outlook

sp'monthly'2 - bollinger/keltner bands


The little ramp into today's close was pretty much the sort of nonsense that even I saw coming. Certainly, the market will need to put in a few daily closes above the important sp'1710 threshold before I can get really confident, but that does seem very likely.

With the new month, the monthly charts have seen their bollinger bands jump higher. The sp' upper bol is now 1743, and if we are trading in the 1740s later this month, that will have further risen to the 1750s.

If there is no debt ceiling problem this month, the sp'1800s will become a very valid target for Nov/Dec. The 'hyper-bullish' outlook best guess is for a year end close in the 1850/1950 zone. I realise the 1900s seem a crazy target, but then...few were touting 1700s at the start of this year.

Looking ahead

Wednesday has ADP jobs data. The Bernanke is speaking at 3pm (at some banking conference), although I'm entirely unsure if the media/market will be interested in that particular event.

*there is sig' QE-pomo of $3-4bn, bears...beware!

So...I'm guessing the market has put in a key turn. The issue now is whether we break a new high >1729..and with continued QE, why would we not?

Yes, there is the debt ceiling issue, and if the US political maniacs can't agree on dealing with that quickly, Mr Market is going to get seriously upset, and we could see a brief..if not very severe equity drop..with VIX most definitely in the mid 20s..if not 30s.

For the moment, I remain long (if currently underwater), and seeking an exit in the sp'1750/75 zone later this month.

Video update from Mr Carboni

Goodnight from London