Tuesday 10 September 2013

Volatility fails to hold the 15s

With equities still climbing, the VIX simply could not hold the 15s, and closed -7% @ 14.53. The market remains utterly complacent, war fears are falling back to nothing, and there is barely any concern about a likely reduction in QE at next Wednesdays FOMC.


VIX'60min


VIX'daily3


Summary

So, the market rally/bounce is now at day'9.

Frankly, any move into the sp'1690s..and talk of a 'bounce' needs to be changed to 'hyper-ramp across the autumn..and into spring 2014'.

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It remains a marginal situation of course. It could merely be a double gap fill in the 1650/80s...before renewed downside.

Yet the problem is obvious, the market has already baked in a QE reduction of 10/15bn for next week. Right now, I honestly can't fathom why the market will not just keep on rising for...months.
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more later..on those bullish indexes