Thursday, 15 August 2013

Side stepping the QE

The main indexes closed moderately lower, with the market remaining stuck within a tight trading range of 2-3%. The rest of the week looks set to see continued minor price chop. The two significant QEs - totalling $6-7bn, will no doubt help hold things together into the weekend.

sp'weekly4b - hyper-bullish with fib levels

sp'daily3 - fib levels


I want to start by noting that even without it being highlighted on the daily'3 chart, you can quite clearly see a possible H/S formation - spanning the past few 4-5 weeks.

Of course, if we break >1709, then the formation/idea gets thrown out.

RE: weekly chart 4b.

The interesting thing is the fib' levels might suggest a move as low as 1540..although I find that VERY difficult to envision this side of the next FOMC (Sept'18).

Regardless, its something to keep in mind if we break below the weekly 10MA (currently rising @ 1660) next week.

Looking ahead

There is actually a very wide array of econ-data tomorrow. Besides the usual weekly jobless, there is the CPI, empire state, housing, indust' prod' and the Phil' Fed' survey.

*there is a sig' QE of $3-4bn, bears..beware!

With QE-pomo both tomorrow and Friday, I am simply going to sit back..and wait. The fact there is also an opex this Friday, along with the current tight trading range, is more than enough to make me sit on the sidelines.

However, baring a break >sp'1700, I will be seeking an index re-short later this Friday, in the sp'1695/1700 zone.


*CSCO earnings were inline, but the stock looks set to open around 10% lower. Naturally, futures (as at 11pm EST) are already almost back to flat.

Something to end the night with....

It just makes me wonder when the bears will again have 'their time'. I see many out there touting a key multi-year top is about in, but for the moment, that is arguably too bold a thing for anyone to call, least of all, yours truly.

Goodnight from London