Thursday, 8 August 2013

A mid-term top appears solidified

With the main indexes slipping for a third day, there appears to be a shift in market mood. The micro-wave count is highly suggestive that sp'1709 is a mid-term top. First downside target is the 1660/50 zone, but with a far more interesting target of 1600/1550 by mid September.

sp'weekly7 - bearish outlook

sp'60min3 - hourly broad outlook


So...a third decline for the equity market, and we're starting to see some signs that the market is indeed exhausted. A 149pt ramp across six full trading weeks, and that looks to be...that!

The micro-wave count on the hourly chart (dare I say) looks pretty good, and all that the bears need now is a break of the sub'4 low of 1676.

Importantly, we currently have a blue candle on the weekly 'rainbow' chart, but still.. in most previous cycles, we will get 4-6 blue candles before the market breaks below the weekly 10MA - currently @ 1656.

Indeed, I don't expect much (if any) price action under 1650 until very late August.

The 'best doomer case'

Whilst the main market is building a top, I'm still inclined to dream of more exciting times ahead....

sp'weekly9c - test of the lower trend

The above is one of a number of basic scenarios, but considering the past 18 months - with QE still ongoing, the sp'1400s do not look at all viable in the remainder of this year.

Looking ahead

There is the usual weekly jobs data, but again, there isn't much else. However, there is mid-sized QE of $3bn

*I am expecting a small bounce at least for the first half of early Thursday, but I will then be looking to pick up an index short block. Anything in the sp'1700/05 area looks 'best case', not least if 1709 is indeed the mid-term high.

Goodnight from London