Saturday, 6 July 2013

Bulls back in control

The bulls fought hard this week, and successfully held the market above the big sp'1600 level. The Friday close, +1% @ sp'1631, sets up further gains for next week. Even more importantly, the weekly charts have turned back in favour of the bulls. Upside in early August to the mid sp'1700s now looks viable.

sp'weekly8 - bullish count


Well, a really lousy end to what was a very lousy week. Of course, that's coming from someone who is generally on the 'bearish' perspective.

For the bulls, it is merely a case of 'normal service has resumed'.

Chart weekly'8 is now what I will be following, with general upside into early August. Best guess, is somewhere in the sp'1700s, which will do serious damage to anyone who is short from current levels.

Having read around this evening, I'm somewhat struggling as to where we go from here, but here is an hourly chart...

sp'60min'3 - early August blue V' complete ?

Certainly, I see the recent action from May as more of a 123/ABC, than some kind of 5 wave. Considering the bigger weekly charts, another few 2-4 weeks of upside looks very likely. Even if it is a blue'5 up, it could fail to break a new high.

Anyway, there is a lot to consider this weekend, and thats just one of a number of ideas I am trying to keep in mind for next week.

Things will be complicated by the fact that Bernanke is speaking to the US House/Senate next Wed/Thursday. The past two times Benny has spoken (May'22, June'19), the market tanked pretty severely.

Goodnight from London

*next main post, late Saturday, on the US monthly indexes