Tuesday 26 February 2013

Volatility falls back

A choppy day in equities, lead to a choppy day in the VIX. The VIX never did go net green - even when the sp' went red. The VIX is cooling off, and closed the day -11% @ 16.87. There is a high likelihood the VIX has one final small fifth wave higher to come in the next day or two.


VIX'60min



VIX'daily3


Summary

The VIX count looks pretty good, and that sure looks a classic wave'3 spike. So..that would make today's decline a 4. The 4 could continue across much of Wednesday..in which case..the 5 would take us into Thursday.

On any basis, I don't expect VIX much higher in this cycle.


Special note..

It is entirely reasonable, and important to keep in mind that even though I expect one final VIX wave higher - as seen on the hourly chart, the final fifth wave might actual truncate - fall short, of the wave'3 high of 19.28.

As things are, I don't expect VIX to break above the key 20 threshold in the coming few days.

Perhaps the fifth will make a fractionally higher high..but regardless, it will probably be the last time we see VIX in the high teens for some weeks, perhaps even a few months.
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more later..on the indexes.