Wednesday 13 February 2013

Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes closed somewhat mixed, although the sp'500 and Dow both made new post-2009 highs. The broad trend remains strongly upward, there is simply no sign of the current trend ending. Even hopes of a minor 2-4% retracement remain just that...hopes.


IWM, daily



SP'daily5



Trans


Summary

So..another day..much like the previous few weeks. They all kinda blend into one, don't they?
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The underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle now looks floored, and is even starting to tick back higher on the daily charts. It will be a few days before we go positive cycle again.

Lets be clear, there is NO reason why we won't just melt higher for another few weeks...and beyond.

How about straight up..relentless melt..for 3 months..or how about 3 years?

How is that impossible, when the Fed is throwing 45bn of POMO $ at the primary dealers each month? At least 'some' of that money is not going to just sit on a hard drive, its going to find its way into an equity account..and it will bid up this market!

I'm really just trying to provoke a few extreme scenarios here...after all, the ramp from Aug'2010 to May'2011 was around 30%. Stick 30% onto sp'1400 - where we started the year..and you get sp'1850.

As a year end target..it has to be considered.

A little more later