Monday, 28 January 2013

Volatility battling higher

Whilst the indexes saw mostly minor sideways chop, the VIX remained green across the day, making the fourth consecutive daily rise. The VIX closed +5.3% @ 13.57. The key target zone is the gap area 16-18, although it will be very difficult to see VIX 17/18, even if sp'1450s.


VIX'60min



VIX'daily3


Summary

VIX action remains very moderate, but there IS a clear upward trend.

The daily MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle went positive for the first time this year. In theory, there should be a good 2-3 days of further upside, but possibly Friday and early next week.

Regardless though of how many days there are in this up cycle, I do NOT see VIX capable of breaking 18. Indeed, I don't expect VIX 20s for some months to come.

*So, I am long VIX, but looking to exit somewhere between 16-18 later this week.

More later..on the indexes

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