A pretty bearish end to the week. Lets take a look at the two outlooks which I noted just a few days ago. There are infinite possibilities of course in this crazy market, but I think the following two broad outlooks are still useful to consider, and can help provoke a few thoughts from both a bearish and bullish viewpoint.
Sp' - bullish outlook
From a cycle point of view, we've already floored, but of course we can remain low for days or even weeks. A break under 1340 arguably wrecks ALL bullish outlooks in the near and mid term. Bulls really need to see a new high sp'1422> preferably before the month ends - that would flip the weekly and monthly cycles back to a bullish trend.
VIX - bullish (market) outlook
My original VIX target of 24 (which seems to have often been a VIX cycle peak in the last few years), is still some 4% pts away, but that could be attained within just 2 or 3 days.
Right now, the bulls will not want to see VIX break a new high on Monday...a move over 21.00 would open the door to an almost immediate jump to 24- which would certainly equate to Sp'1340.
The Bearish market outlook
SP' bearish scenario
This is arguably a 'doomer' chart, it targets 1270/50 sometime this May, although the possibility - especially if European Bond spreads start to spike, would be a move to 1150, but that would probably take a bit longer..maybe June/July (much like the action in summer 2010).
VIX, daily, bearish market
Perhaps the most scary thing for the bulls right now was to see the VIX hold the 10MA on the daily yesterday. With today's significant up move, there is now the real threat of putting in a new VIX high on Mon/Tuesday.
I would still guess that if VIX hits the 24 zone, we'd see some kind of brief pullback, before the VIX explodes into the 40s.
Time for the weekend
That's probably it from me for today. We've seen some pretty dynamic market days this week, I think many will need this weekend to recover. However, there will be more from me over the weekend, especially highlighting the weekly/monthly cycles.